It’s been a while that Bitcoin price action is not moving above $23,000 as the momentum has been switching between $19,000 and $20,000. The flagship currency has brought down most other cryptocurrencies.
At the time of publication, bitcoin is selling at $19,834, with a pinch of 0.50% over the past 24 hours.
The upcoming days for the crypto market is also dependent on the US Federal Reserve’s rate hike that is scheduled on September 21st. The Wall Street experts are of the opinion that the Fed will go ahead with a decision to raise the interest rates by another 75 bps.
Bitcoin price down?
Bitcoin price action for the coming days can be gauged with the help of on-chain metrics such as Realized Price, Delta Price and Thermo Price. Nevertheless, although these help in forecasting the future, the real picture of BTC price movement is obtained by technical and macroeconomic factors.
The popular on-chain price model to predict a Bitcoin price bottom is realized price. This value represents the most recent change in the average price of all Bitcoins in creation. As previously seen, Bitcoin has always plunged below the realized price and if Bitcoin continues to do so, other metrics will determine the action. At present, the realized price sits at $21,592.
While previously assumed bitcoin price action to be delta value, BTC has a history of trading below this metric as seen in the 2015 and 2018 market corrections. At the moment, the delta price is located at $14,478 and it indicates that bitcoin is ready to register another 28% drop from its current position.
The last one, Thermo price indicates Bitcoin bottom at $2,365 and with an increase in Bitcoin addresses, the price is most likely to settle at the said range.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision to hike interest rates will depend on the CPI and employment data for the month of August. According to the CME FedWatch platform, the probability of a rate hike of 75 bps is 67%. Wall Street banks expect an additional 75 basis points in September.
August month’s US job data reveal that the employment rate has dropped to 315k from July’s 528k. Conversely, August’s unemployment data has spiked to 3.7%. However, the CPI stats will ultimately influence the decision on interest rate raise this month.
