Path forward for risky assets, including cryptocurrencies, might be challenging
on-chain analytics firm sentiment has shared some important dates on Twitter that it believes could have an impact on cryptocurrency prices. It wrote: “The schedule of major macro events that could have an impact on crypto. As the relationship between digital assets and equities is tight, these are critically important dates to keep an eye on.”
Per Arcane Research, the most important dates are related to the Oct. 13 CPI release and the Nov. 2 FOMC meeting. “BTC’s intraday volatility during last week’s FOMC meeting reached record highs. This shows why it’s worth paying attention to important macro events, and you should already mark the Sept U.S. CPI release on Oct 13 and the next FOMC press conference on Nov 2 in your calendar,” it wrote in Twitter comments.
According to the schedule shared by Sentiment, the US CPI release dates for the rest of the year are October 13, November 10 and December 13. Meanwhile, the dates for FOMC meetings are October 12th (Fed FOMC Meetings), Fed FOMC. Fed FOMC meeting on November 2 (interest rate decision), November 23 (Fed FOMC minutes) and December 14.
The FOMC dates matter as market observers indicate a “high risk” for Bitcoin during FOMC meetings. The Bitcoin dip on Sept. 13 resembled a similar pattern noted around 8-10 days before the FOMC meetings this year (May, June and July), whereby the price trended downward and rose after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech.
high risk environment
While all of the FOMC meetings this year have taken place in a high-risk environment, the most obvious risk occurred in January. Bitcoin also dropped sharply in September following the release of CPI data. With the long range of dates mentioned above, the road ahead could be challenging for riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Generally speaking, traders in traditional markets anticipated the Fed pausing rate hikes next year and to switch to liquidity easing by June 2023. The Fed may have to postpone the scheduled pause and implement a further 75 basis-point interest rate increase before reducing the pace in December and January as inflation persists.
