The four-year cycle model might be outdated according to this market thesis
According to a blockchain analyst and economist Willy Woo, Bitcoin market cycles have completely changed and are now shaped differently than in previous periods. The data pattern provided suggests that the current downtrend may be over.
The new movement model of Bitcoin
Back in October, Woo shared “The Last Cycle” thesis, suggesting that bearish and bullish cycles on Bitcoin no longer move in four-year patterns. Mainly, halving was the main driver of each cycle: Bitcoin accumulation was increasing right before the halving, active distribution happening after that and the bearish cycle beginning in the period between halvings.
After the massive influx of institutional funds, the cryptocurrency market ecosystem matured considerably and began to evolve independently from Bitcoin halvings. The “unpredictable march” that Bitcoin is showing at the moment is mainly related to the natural supply and demand in the ecosystem, which is how the strong correlation with traditional markets was easily explained.
Once the market finds more key factors to follow, the cryptocurrency industry will most likely start moving in patterns similar to trends on emerging markets. Previously, U.Today noted that Bitcoin follows the currencies of emerging countries like Brazil.
Wave shortening
Further evidence in favor of the thesis is the continuous shortening of each Bitcoin wave. The first rapid cryptocurrency price surge that began in 2010 was the longest, while the second and third waves were significantly shorter.
Besides shorter trends, Woo brought up the 100-day correction that started in April, when most of the market expected the end of the rally and another yearslong bearmarket. That did not happen as the first cryptocurrency’s price rallied to almost $70,000.
