Bitcoin [BTC] hit its 2022 rock bottom on 18 June when it went below $17,700. Since then, the number one cryptocurrency has gone up and down the charts. However, BTC has only surged stronger and did not reach such levels again, spending most of its days above $20,000.
Now, there could be another side to the BTC price movement. According to Tomas Hanar, a Cryptoquant analyst, BTC is close To hit the bottom—he cited that it’s about a third.
How has this happened?
Based on the analysis by Hančar, the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) has spent three months at neutral levels.
Hainer continued to point out that the Long Term Holders (LTH) Output Profit Ratio within the 20 SMA shows that the bottom has suggested a third approach. He mentioned that the situation was likely a 2018/2019 bear-bull switch. Hansar said,
“As far as the indicator’s 20 day MA smoothing line in technical terms is concerned, between 10th and 14th july we’ve seen what looks to be a bounce off of 2020 actual LTH SOPR low, coincidentally not too far off the 0.49 level, which represented the very lows of both 2015 as well as 2018/2019 cyclical bottoms”
While the analysis may have suggested that investors may start buying, Hansar emphasized the need to be cautious. He added that a further downside could be seen below $20,000 before a guarantee above this could be seen.
Who else agrees?
Earlier, Glassnode suggested that the bear market was not entirely over. So are other indicators in synchronization with Hančar’s projections?
According to BTC charts, the current market is still neutral as the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) is in the blue and the 50 EMA (yellow) is almost at the same level. With this trend, short-term traders may want to see where BTC heads next.
In the longer time frame, the 200 EMA (cyan) showed signs of an uptrend and maintained a position only below the BTC price of $22,500. This position may mean Hančar’s BTC price prediction could be a reality.
At press time, BTC was trading at 23,176 CoinMarketCap, With an increase of 1.09%, buying more BTC could be risky as long-term investors’ preference to wait and watch could pay off.